A Thermodynamic Model for the Emergence of Natural Selection in Prebiotic Reaction Networks

Abstract

The origin of life is often approached through the lens of replication, heredity, or molecular specificity. This paper proposes a thermodynamic framework in which the emergence of life is driven by the persistence of reaction pathways that align energetically with fluctuating environmental inputs. We define a reaction viability inequality based on energy input, release, resilience, and expenditure, which selects for persistent chemical configurations without invoking heredity or genetic encoding. We further incorporate entropic dynamics and spatial constraints into an augmented persistence function, showing that systems far from equilibrium can simultaneously increase global entropy while supporting localized chemical order. These refinements lead to the development of the Thermodynamic Abiogenesis Likelihood Model (TALM), a probabilistic extension that estimates the likelihood of persistence-driven selection under diverse prebiotic and planetary scenarios. This framework redefines the conditions under which life-like organization may emerge and provides a testable, general theory for abiogenesis grounded in physical law.