Deep Learning vs. Black-Scholes: Option Pricing Performance on Brazilian Petrobras Stocks

Abstract

This paper explores the use of deep residual networks for pricing European options on Petrobras, one of the world's largest oil and gas producers, and compares its performance with the Black-Scholes (BS) model. Using eight years of historical data from B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange) collected via web scraping, a deep learning model was trained using a custom built hybrid loss function that incorporates market data and analytical pricing. The data for training and testing were drawn between the period spanning November 2016 to January 2025, using an 80-20 train-test split. The test set consisted of data from the final three months: November, December, and January 2025. The deep residual network model achieved a 64.3\% reduction in the mean absolute error for the 3-19 BRL (Brazilian Real) range when compared to the Black-Scholes model on the test set. Furthermore, unlike the Black-Scholes solution, which tends to decrease its accuracy for longer periods of time, the deep learning model performed accurately for longer expiration periods. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in financial modeling, with future work focusing on specialized models for different price ranges.