Decomposition of Probabilities of Causation with Two Mediators

Yuta Kawakami; Jin Tian

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arXiv · 2505.04983

Decomposition of Probabilities of Causation with Two Mediators

Yuta Kawakami·Jin Tian

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Abstract

Mediation analysis for probabilities of causation (PoC) provides a fundamental framework for evaluating the necessity and sufficiency of treatment in provoking an event through different causal pathways. One of the primary objectives of causal mediation analysis is to decompose the total effect into path-specific components. In this study, we investigate the path-specific probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS) to decompose the total PNS into path-specific components along distinct causal pathways between treatment and outcome, incorporating two mediators. We define the path-specific PNS for decomposition and provide an identification theorem. Furthermore, we conduct numerical experiments to assess the properties of the proposed estimators from finite samples and demonstrate their practical application using a real-world educational dataset.

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Yuta Kawakami, Jin Tian. 2025-05-08. Decomposition of Probabilities of Causation with Two Mediators. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04983

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