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arXiv · 2505.17946

The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data

Jinchi Dong·Richard S. J. Tol·Jinnan Wang
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Abstract

Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from nearly all countries, we find robust evidence that weather shocks have a transient effect on output. The impact on economic growth is large and significant in the short-run but statistically insignificant in the long-run, except in the coldest and hottest places.

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Jinchi Dong, Richard S. J. Tol, Jinnan Wang. 2025-05-23. The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.17946

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