Modeling the Path of Structural Strategic Deterrence: A Sand Table Simulation and Research Report on China's Military-Industrial Capability System against the United States Based on Rare Earth Supply Disconnection

Abstract

This study proposes a systematic non-kinetic deterrence path modeling framework based on strategic rare earth supply cut-off, aiming to assess the strategic effects of China's export control policy against the United States at the military system level. The model adopts a four-layer structure of "policy input -- resource node -- equipment system -- capability output" and integrates path dependency modeling, degradation function design, and capability lag prediction mechanisms to form a strategic simulation system. The study incorporates graph neural networks and LSTM-based time series methods to dynamically evaluate the impact of rare earth supply disruption on key U.S. military platforms such as the F-35 fighter, nuclear submarines, and AI combat systems, identifying critical path nodes and strategic timing windows. Results indicate that a ten-year zero-tolerance policy on rare earth exports would lead to a significant technological disconnect between years 3 to 5 and a systemic capability lag between years 8 to 12, with an estimated average annual economic impact of 35 to 40 billion USD. These findings demonstrate that rare earth export cut-offs can serve as a structural strategic deterrent capable of disrupting deployment tempos without direct confrontation. The proposed model provides quantifiable and visualized tools for strategic decision-making and supports national-level security simulations and policy optimization research.