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arXiv · 2505.22587

Bayesian Non-Parametric Inference for Lévy Measures in State-Space Models

Bill Z. Lin·Simon Godsill
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Abstract

Lévy processes, known for their ability to model complex dynamics with skewness, heavy tails, and discontinuities, play a critical role in stochastic modeling across various domains. However, inference for most Lévy processes, whether in parametric or non-parametric settings, remains a significant challenge. In this work, we present a novel Bayesian non-parametric inference framework for inferring the Lévy measures of subordinators and normal variance-mean (NVM) processes within a linear state space model. A flexible random measure, the Independent Gamma-scaled Dirichlet Process (IGSDP), is introduced, for which the well-known Gamma process is a special case, leading to tractable conditional distributions for inference about both Lévy measures. We further show that in the Gamma process special case, conjugacy can be achieved for hyper-parameter inference. An explicit characterization of the parameter contour for NVM processes is provided, enabling an identifiable parameterization of the model for effective Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in posterior inference. The method is demonstrated on both synthetic and tick-level (high-frequency) financial datasets.

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Bill Z. Lin, Simon Godsill. 2026-06-10. Bayesian Non-Parametric Inference for Lévy Measures in State-Space Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.22587

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