Cold pools, Breezes, and Monsoons: Propagating Convection over New Guinea

Abstract

The diurnal cycle of precipitation near New Guinea involves intricate land-ocean-atmosphere interactions, posing substantial challenges for tropical weather and climate simulations. Using over two decades of GPM satellite observations and convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulations, this study examines the physical mechanisms governing the pronounced offshore propagation of diurnal convection over New Guinea. We identify two distinct convective propagation modes: (a) a "ridge-to-coast" mode originated over elevated terrain and migrating toward the coastline, and (b) an "over-ocean" mode initiated near the coast, separated by a spatial gap of approximately 100 km. Our findings highlight the critical role of multi-scale thermally driven flow in shaping boundary-layer dynamics over warm ocean waters. Specifically, the afternoon sea-breeze front advects cooler air onshore, stabilizing the lower atmosphere and interrupting the continuous propagation of the first mode. At night, the hybrid land breeze (LB), strengthened by cold pools, generates offshore moist patches that facilitate the convective regeneration and propagation of the second mode. These offshore convective systems interact with monsoonal background winds, sustaining precipitation well beyond 200~600 km from the coast. Sensitivity experiments indicate that even a modest increase in sea surface temperature can enhance convective intensity and extend offshore propagation. These results shed light on the mechanisms that enable diurnal offshore convection to persist overnight and propagate far from the coastline, highlighting the importance of moist-boundary-layer density currents and offering insights for improving precipitation forecasts and global model performance over the Maritime Continent.