Time-series surrogates from energy consumers generated by machine learning approaches for long-term forecasting scenarios

Ben Gerhards; Nikita Popkov; Annekatrin König; Marcel Arpogaus; Bastian Schäfermeier; Leonie Riedl; Stephan Vogt; Philip Hehlert

arXiv · 2506.20253

Time-series surrogates from energy consumers generated by machine learning approaches for long-term forecasting scenarios

Ben Gerhards·Nikita Popkov·Annekatrin König·Marcel Arpogaus·Bastian Schäfermeier·Leonie Riedl·Stephan Vogt·Philip Hehlert

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Abstract

Forecasting attracts a lot of research attention in the electricity value chain. However, most studies concentrate on short-term forecasting of generation or consumption with a focus on systems and less on individual consumers. Even more neglected is the topic of long-term forecasting of individual power consumption. Here, we provide an in-depth comparative evaluation of data-driven methods for generating synthetic time series data tailored to energy consumption long-term forecasting. High-fidelity synthetic data is crucial for a wide range of applications, including state estimations in energy systems or power grid planning. In this study, we assess and compare the performance of multiple state-of-the-art but less common techniques: a hybrid Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN), Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM), Hidden Markov Model (HMM), and Masked Autoregressive Bernstein polynomial normalizing Flows (MABF). We analyze the ability of each method to replicate the temporal dynamics, long-range dependencies, and probabilistic transitions characteristic of individual energy consumption profiles. Our comparative evaluation highlights the strengths and limitations of: WGAN, DDPM, HMM and MABF aiding in selecting the most suitable approach for state estimations and other energy-related tasks. Our generation and analysis framework aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of synthetic power consumption data while generating data that fulfills criteria like anonymisation - preserving privacy concerns mitigating risks of specific profiling of single customers. This study utilizes an open-source dataset from households in Germany with 15min time resolution. The generated synthetic power profiles can readily be used in applications like state estimations or consumption forecasting.

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Ben Gerhards, Nikita Popkov, Annekatrin König, Marcel Arpogaus, Bastian Schäfermeier, Leonie Riedl, Stephan Vogt, Philip Hehlert. 2025-06-25. Time-series surrogates from energy consumers generated by machine learning approaches for long-term forecasting scenarios. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.20253

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