Tensor-product interactions in Markov-switching models

Abstract

Markov-switching models are a powerful tool for modelling time series data that are driven by underlying latent states. As such, they are widely used in behavioural ecology, where discrete states can serve as proxies for behavioural modes and enable inference on latent behaviour driving e.g. observed movement. To understand drivers of behavioural changes, it is common to link model parameters to covariates. Over the last decade, nonparametric approaches have gained traction in this context to avoid unrealistic parametric assumptions. Nonetheless, existing methods are largely limited to univariate smooth functions of covariates, based on penalised splines, while real processes are typically complex requiring consideration of interaction effects. We address this gap by incorporating tensor-product interactions into Markov-switching models, enabling flexible modelling of multidimensional effects in a computationally efficient manner. Based on the extended Fellner-Schall method, we develop an efficient automatic smoothness selection procedure that is robust and scales well with the number of smooth functions in the model. The method builds on a random effects view of the spline coefficients and yields a recursive penalised likelihood procedure. As special cases, this general framework accommodates bivariate smoothing, function-valued random effects, and space-time interactions. We demonstrate its practical utility through three ecological case studies of an African elephant, common fruitflies, and Arctic muskoxen. The methodology is implemented in the LaMa R package, providing applied ecologists with an accessible and flexible tool for semiparametric inference in hidden-state models. The approach has the potential to drastically improve the level of detail in inference, allowing to fit HMMs with hundreds of parameters, 10-20 (potentially bivariate) smooths to thousands of observations.