Causal Impacts of Protected Bike Lanes on Cycling Behavior with Demographic Disparities

Marcel Moran; Malik Salman; Takahiro Yabe

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arXiv · 2507.04936

Causal Impacts of Protected Bike Lanes on Cycling Behavior with Demographic Disparities

Marcel Moran·Malik Salman·Takahiro Yabe

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Abstract

Cities around the world face significant barriers to grow urban cycling, including competing budgetary priorities and car-centric streets. Thus, when making decisions regarding the installation of bicycle infrastructure, it is crucial to understand if and to what extent different bicycle-lane types increase bicycle ridership. However, associations between bicycle infrastructure and bicycle ridership have primarily been studied in the context of individual lanes and corridors, or when analyzed at the scale of entire cities, generalized across different bike-lane types. Drawing upon 72 million bikeshare trips from Citi Bike in New York, we demonstrate that there is an approximately 18% increase in bikeshare trips at adjacent stations in the 12 months following the installation of protected bike lanes (those with a physical barrier between cyclists and automobile traffic) and a 14% increase associated with painted bike lanes (where a line of pavement marking is present) and `sharrows' (where a normal traffic lane is marked with a bike stencil). However, using a difference-in-differences analysis, we detect a causal effect on bikeshare ridership only following the installation of protected bike lanes, with an average monthly increase of 379 rides per station (p<0.001). Despite this causal effect being pronounced among census block groups with higher percentages of older adults (688 rides per month per station, p<0.001), the causal effect of protected bike lanes on bikeshare ridership is absent in census block groups where the percentage of Black residents is medium to high. Taken together, these findings indicate that planners must emphasize protected bike lanes to spur ridership, and simultaneously target policies and programming to communities of color, to ensure that such infrastructure makes urban cycling a viable option for all residents.

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Marcel Moran, Malik Salman, Takahiro Yabe. 2025-07-07. Causal Impacts of Protected Bike Lanes on Cycling Behavior with Demographic Disparities. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.04936

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