Bifurcation in dynamic problems with seasonal succession

Gonzalo Galiano; Julián Velasco

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arXiv · 2507.05694

Bifurcation in dynamic problems with seasonal succession

Gonzalo Galiano·Julián Velasco

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Abstract

We investigate the bifurcation structure of equilibria in a class of non-autonomous ordinary differential equations governed by a season length parameter, $\tau$, which determines the alternation between growth and decline dynamics. This structure models biological systems exhibiting seasonal variation, such as insect population dynamics or infectious disease transmission. Using the Crandall-Rabinowitz bifurcation theorem, we establish the existence of a critical threshold $\tau^*$ at which a bifurcation from the extinction equilibrium occurs. We also explore the emergence of secondary bifurcations from, in general, explicitly unknown non-trivial equilibria which can only be treated numerically. Our results are illustrated with a two-species competitive Lotka-Volterra model for the growth season and a Malthusian model for the decline season for which primary and secondary bifurcations may be computed analytically, allowing the validation of numerical approximations. Our analysis shows how seasonality drives transitions between extinction of both populations, of only one, and coexistence of both populations.

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Gonzalo Galiano, Julián Velasco. 2025-07-08. Bifurcation in dynamic problems with seasonal succession. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.05694

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