SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2507.07021

Early Warning From Eccentric Compact Binaries: Template Initialization And Sub-dominant Mode Effects

Abstract

Early warning of gravitational waves (GWs) is essential for multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star and black hole-neutron star merger events. In this study, we investigate early warning prospects from eccentric compact binaries, whose mergers are expected to comprise a significant fraction of detected GW events in the future. Eccentric binaries exhibit oscillatory frequency evolution, causing GW frequencies to recur multiple times through their coalescence. Consequently, generating eccentric waveform templates for early warning requires specification of initial conditions. While the standard approach involves initiating waveform generation when the orbit-averaged frequency enters the detector band, we compare this with an alternative approach that uses the periastron frequency as the starting point. Our analysis shows that initializing at the periastron frequency yields an improved signal-to-noise ratio and sky localization. Additionally, including subdominant modes alongside the dominant $(2,2)$ mode leads to further improvements in sky localization. We explore the parameter space of primary mass $m_1 \in [1.4, 15] \, M_\odot$, spin $\chi_1 \in [0, 0.8]$, and eccentricity $e \leq 0.4$ across three detector configurations: O5, Voyager, and 3G. We find that in the O5 (Voyager) configuration, including eccentricity and subdominant modes, the sky localization area can be reduced by $2-80\% (2-85\%)$ at 1000 sq. deg. with increasing eccentricity from $e_5 = 0.1$ to $e_5 = 0.4$, yielding up to $41$ seconds (1 minute) of extra early warning time. For NSBH systems, subdominant modes contribute up to $70$ $(94)\%$ reduction for O5 (Voyager) scenario. In the 3G detector scenario, the sky area reduction due to eccentricity reaches $80\%$ (from $e_{2.5} = 0.1$ to $e_{2.5} = 0.4$) at 100 sq. deg., and subdominant modes enhance the reduction up to $98\%$ for NSBH systems.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Priyanka Sinha, R. Prasad, Mukesh Kumar Singh, Prayush Kumar, Akash Maurya, Kaushik Paul. 2025-07-09. Early Warning From Eccentric Compact Binaries: Template Initialization And Sub-dominant Mode Effects. https://doi.org/10.1103/j77m-dyym

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc