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arXiv · 2507.14132

A Bayesian Dirichlet Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model for Forecasting Currency Shares

Harrison Katz·Robert E. Weiss
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Abstract

We analyze daily Airbnb service-fee shares across eleven settlement currencies, a compositional series that shows bursts of volatility after shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard Dirichlet time series models assume constant precision and therefore miss these episodes. We introduce B-DARMA-DARCH, a Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average model with a Dirichlet ARCH component, which lets the precision parameter follow an ARMA recursion. The specification preserves the Dirichlet likelihood so forecasts remain valid compositions while capturing clustered volatility. Simulations and out-of-sample tests show that B-DARMA-DARCH lowers forecast error and improves interval calibration relative to Dirichlet ARMA and log-ratio VARMA benchmarks, providing a concise framework for settings where both the level and the volatility of proportions matter.

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Harrison Katz, Robert E. Weiss. 2025-07-18. A Bayesian Dirichlet Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model for Forecasting Currency Shares. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.02.002.

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