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arXiv · 2508.01904

Modeling the Impact of NATO Policy Actions on Taliban Disinformation Campaigns with Lotka-Volterra Models

Timothy Tarter·Bella Santos
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Abstract

In this paper, we use an adaptation of the Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey framework (via Affili Et. Al.) to model the relationship between Taliban disinformation campaigns and NATO's attempts to counter them. We find that aggression is a significantly preferred strategy over stagnation; this result should prompt decisionmakers to take strong stances against disinformation campaigns while maintaining a healthy defense against retribution. This leads us to propose the NATO Afghan Youth for Change program, which provides scholarships to individuals throughout the Afghan diaspora to become NATO influencers - a role which will both advance their personal goals and mitigate the spread of disinformation in what may otherwise be communities targeted by the Taliban's disinformation campaigns.

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Timothy Tarter, Bella Santos. 2025-08-03. Modeling the Impact of NATO Policy Actions on Taliban Disinformation Campaigns with Lotka-Volterra Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.01904

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