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arXiv · 2508.05163

Resilience metrics to guide back-up investments in the power system during extreme weather

Aleksander Grochowicz·Hannah C. Bloomfield·Marta Victoria
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Abstract

Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond the meteorological root cause. We use an approach based on shadow prices to identify periods of elevated stress called system-defining events and analyse their impact on the power system. By classifying different types of system-defining events, we identify challenges to power system operation and planning. Crucially, we find the need for sufficient resilience back-up (power) capacities whose financial viability is precarious due to weather variability and weather-induced risk. Furthermore, we disentangle short- and long-term resilience challenges (from multi-day to annual scale) with distinct metrics and stress tests to incorporate both into future energy modelling assessments. Our methodology and implementation in an open energy system model (PyPSA-Eur) can be re-applied to other systems and help researchers and policymakers in building more resilient and adequate energy systems.

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Aleksander Grochowicz, Hannah C. Bloomfield, Marta Victoria. 2025-08-07. Resilience metrics to guide back-up investments in the power system during extreme weather. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01897-6

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