An Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Railway Predictive Maintenance using Data Streams from the Metro Operator of Portugal

Abstract

This work contributes to a real-time data-driven predictive maintenance solution for Intelligent Transportation Systems. The proposed method implements a processing pipeline comprised of sample pre-processing, incremental classification with Machine Learning models, and outcome explanation. This novel online processing pipeline has two main highlights: (i) a dedicated sample pre-processing module, which builds statistical and frequency-related features on the fly, and (ii) an explainability module. This work is the first to perform online fault prediction with natural language and visual explainability. The experiments were performed with the MetroPT data set from the metro operator of Porto, Portugal. The results are above 98 % for F-measure and 99 % for accuracy. In the context of railway predictive maintenance, achieving these high values is crucial due to the practical and operational implications of accurate failure prediction. In the specific case of a high F-measure, this ensures that the system maintains an optimal balance between detecting the highest possible number of real faults and minimizing false alarms, which is crucial for maximizing service availability. Furthermore, the accuracy obtained enables reliability, directly impacting cost reduction and increased safety. The analysis demonstrates that the pipeline maintains high performance even in the presence of class imbalance and noise, and its explanations effectively reflect the decision-making process. These findings validate the methodological soundness of the approach and confirm its practical applicability for supporting proactive maintenance decisions in real-world railway operations. Therefore, by identifying the early signs of failure, this pipeline enables decision-makers to understand the underlying problems and act accordingly swiftly.