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arXiv · 2508.06662

Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels

Austin Kennedy
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Abstract

This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border "crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52% through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size.

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Austin Kennedy. 2025-08-08. Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103378

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