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arXiv · 2508.10575

Matters Arising: Spatial correlation in economic analysis of climate change

Christof Schötz
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Abstract

Climate change poses substantial risks to the global economy. Kotz, Levermann and Wenz (Nature, 2024) statistically analyzed economic and climate data, finding significant projected damages until mid-century and a divergence in outcomes between high- and low-emission scenarios thereafter. We find that their analysis underestimates uncertainty owing to large, unaccounted-for spatial correlations on the subnational level, rendering their results statistically insignificant when properly corrected. Thus, their study does not provide the robust empirical evidence needed to inform climate policy.

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Christof Schötz. 2025-08-14. Matters Arising: Spatial correlation in economic analysis of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09206-5

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