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arXiv · 2509.00585

MOPED: A moving sum method for change point detection in pairwise extremal dependence

Euan T. McGonigle·Matthew Pawley·Jordan Richards·Christian Rohrbeck
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Abstract

It is increasingly the case with modern time series that many data sets of practical interest contain abrupt changes in structure. These changes may occur in complex characteristics such as the extremal dependence structure, and identifying such structural breaks remains a challenging problem. Many existing change point detection algorithms focus on changes in dependence across the entire distribution, rather than the tails, and approaches that are tailored to extremes typically make strict parametric assumptions or they are only applicable to bivariate data. We propose a nonparametric MOving sum-based approach for detecting multiple changes in the Pairwise Extremal Dependence (MOPED) of multivariate regularly varying data. To avoid the classical problem of threshold selection in the study of multivariate extremes, we further propose a multiscale, multi-threshold variant of MOPED that pools change point estimates across choices of the threshold and the bandwidth used in local estimation. Good performance of MOPED is illustrated in a simulation study, and we showcase its ability to identify subtle changes in tail dependence class in the absence of correlation changes. We further demonstrate the usefulness of MOPED by identifying changes in the extremal connectivity of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals of seizure-prone neonates.

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Euan T. McGonigle, Matthew Pawley, Jordan Richards, Christian Rohrbeck. 2025-08-30. MOPED: A moving sum method for change point detection in pairwise extremal dependence. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.00585

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