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arXiv · 2509.04036

Reputational Conservatism in Expert Advice

Georgy Lukyanov·Anna Vlasova
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Abstract

We study expert advice with career concerns and continuous private signals. The principal always implements the safe option, and implements the risky option with a probability increasing in the expert's reputation; outcomes, when realized, update reputation. We show a unique cutoff equilibrium and continuity. Under a relative-diagnosticity condition, the experimentation threshold is increasing in reputation ("playing it safe at the top"). Comparative statics are clean, and success-contingent bonuses map one-to-one into experimentation while gatekeeping scales implemented experimentation and learning.

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Georgy Lukyanov, Anna Vlasova. 2025-09-04. Reputational Conservatism in Expert Advice. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04036

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