Modeling Cholera Dynamics Under Food Insecurity and Environmental Contamination: A Multi-Patch Approach

Jean-Marc Mandeng

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arXiv · 2509.05731

Modeling Cholera Dynamics Under Food Insecurity and Environmental Contamination: A Multi-Patch Approach

Jean-Marc Mandeng

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Abstract

We propose a multi-patch model of cholera transmission integrating environmental contamination, human mobility, and nutritional vulnerability. The population is stratified by food security status, and transmission occurs via human contact, bacteria in the environment and contaminated food. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ analyze the stability of the disease-free equilibria and show a forward bifurcation. Numerical simulations illustrate how food insecurity amplifies outbreak severity and mortality. The model highlights the role of spatial heterogeneity and socio-environmental factors in shaping cholera dynamics. Moreover, results show the impact of sinks inside starting epidemic.

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Jean-Marc Mandeng. 2025-09-06. Modeling Cholera Dynamics Under Food Insecurity and Environmental Contamination: A Multi-Patch Approach. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05731

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