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arXiv · 2509.11412

Defending Saltwater Intrusion: The Freshwater Pushback

Xun Cai·Qubin Qin·Jian Shen·Holly A. Michael·Matthew L. Kirwan·Peter A. Raymond
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Abstract

Saltwater Intrusion (SWI) threatens freshwater availability, agriculture, and ecosystem resilience in coastal regions. While sea-level rise (SLR) is a known driver of long-term salinization, the counteracting role of freshwater discharge remains underexamined. Here, we combine long-term observations with numerical modeling and machine learning reconstruction to quantify the buffering capacity of freshwater outflows across the U.S. coastline. In systems such as Delaware Bay and parts of the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts, the salt front has shifted seaward in recent decades, linked to increased discharge, despite SLR over that time period. We show that a 10 - 35% increase in freshwater flow can offset the salinity impact of 0.5 m of SLR, though regional variation is significant. With future discharge trends diverging spatially, SWI responses will be highly uneven. These results highlight the critical role of freshwater management in mitigating salinity risks under climate change, with implications for water resource resilience, coastal planning, and long-term adaptation strategies.

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Xun Cai, Qubin Qin, Jian Shen, Holly A. Michael, Matthew L. Kirwan, Peter A. Raymond. 2025-09-14. Defending Saltwater Intrusion: The Freshwater Pushback. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.11412

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