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arXiv · 2509.13971

Time-smoothed inverse probability weighted estimation of effects of generalized time-varying treatment strategies on repeated outcomes truncated by death

Sean McGrath·Takuya Kawahara·Joshua Petimar·Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman·Iván Díaz·Jason P. Block·Jessica G. Young
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Abstract

Researchers are often interested in estimating effects of generalized time-varying treatment strategies on the mean of an outcome at one or more selected follow-up times of interest. For example, the Medications and Weight Gain in PCORnet (MedWeight) study aimed to estimate effects of adhering to flexible medication regimes on future weight change using electronic health records (EHR) data. This problem presents several methodological challenges that have not been jointly addressed in the prior literature. First, this setting involves treatment strategies that vary over time and depend dynamically and non-deterministically on measured confounder history. Second, the outcome is repeatedly, non-monotonically, informatively, and sparsely measured in the data source. Third, some individuals die during follow-up, rendering the outcome of interest undefined at the follow-up time of interest. In this article, we pose a range of inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators targeting effects of generalized time-varying treatment strategies in truncation by death settings that allow time-smoothing for precision gain. We conducted simulation studies that confirm precision gains of the time-smoothed IPW approaches over more conventional IPW approaches that do not leverage the repeated outcome measurements. We illustrate an application of the IPW approaches to estimate comparative effects of adhering to flexible antidepressant medication strategies on future weight change. The methods are implemented in the accompanying R package, smoothedIPW.

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Sean McGrath, Takuya Kawahara, Joshua Petimar, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Iván Díaz, Jason P. Block, Jessica G. Young. 2025-09-17. Time-smoothed inverse probability weighted estimation of effects of generalized time-varying treatment strategies on repeated outcomes truncated by death. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13971

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