Modelling time series of counts with hysteresis

Xintong Ma; Dong Li; Howell Tong

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arXiv · 2509.15508

Modelling time series of counts with hysteresis

Xintong Ma·Dong Li·Howell Tong

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Abstract

In this article, we propose a novel model for time series of counts called the hysteretic Poisson autoregressive (HPART) model with thresholds by extending the linear Poisson autoregressive model into a nonlinear model. Unlike other approaches that bear the adjective ``hysteretic", our model incorporates a scientifically relevant controlling factor that produces genuine hysteresis. Further, we re-analyse the buffered Poisson autoregressive (BPART) model with thresholds. Although the two models share the convenient piecewise linear structure, the HPART model probes deeper into the intricate dynamics that governs regime switching. We study the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of both models and their asymptotic properties in a unified manner, establish tests of separate families of hypotheses for the non-nested case involving a BPART model and a HPART model, and demonstrate the finite-sample efficacy of parameter estimation and tests with Monte Carlo simulation. We showcase advantages of the HPART model with two real time series, including plausible interpretations and improved out-of-sample predictions.

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Xintong Ma, Dong Li, Howell Tong. 2025-09-19. Modelling time series of counts with hysteresis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15508

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