BULL-ODE: Bullwhip Learning with Neural ODEs and Universal Differential Equations under Stochastic Demand

Abstract

We study learning of continuous-time inventory dynamics under stochastic demand and quantify when structure helps or hurts forecasting of the bullwhip effect. BULL-ODE compares a fully learned Neural ODE (NODE) that models the entire right-hand side against a physics-informed Universal Differential Equation (UDE) that preserves conservation and order-up-to structure while learning a small residual policy term. Classical supply chain models explain the bullwhip through control/forecasting choices and information sharing, while recent physics-informed and neural differential equation methods blend domain constraints with learned components. It is unclear whether structural bias helps or hinders forecasting under different demand regimes. We address this by using a single-echelon testbed with three demand regimes - AR(1) (autocorrelated), i.i.d. Gaussian, and heavy-tailed lognormal. Training is done on varying fractions of each trajectory, followed by evaluation of multi-step forecasts for inventory I, order rate O, and demand D. Across the structured regimes, UDE consistently generalizes better: with 90% of the training horizon, inventory RMSE drops from 4.92 (NODE) to 0.26 (UDE) under AR(1) and from 5.96 to 0.95 under Gaussian demand. Under heavy-tailed lognormal shocks, the flexibility of NODE is better. These trends persist as train18 ing data shrinks, with NODE exhibiting phase drift in extrapolation while UDE remains stable but underreacts to rare spikes. Our results provide concrete guidance: enforce structure when noise is light-tailed or temporally correlated; relax structure when extreme events dominate. Beyond inventory control, the results offer guidance for hybrid modeling in scientific and engineering systems: enforce known structure when conservation laws and modest noise dominate, and relax structure to capture extremes in settings where rare events drive dynamics.