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arXiv · 2509.18228

Forest tree species classification and entropy-derived uncertainty mapping using extreme gradient boosting and Sentinel-1/2 satellite data

Abdulhakim M. Abdi·Fan Wang
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Abstract

We present a new 10-meter map of dominant tree species in Swedish forests accompanied by pixel-level uncertainty estimates. The tree species classification is based on spatiotemporal metrics derived from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite data, combined with field observations from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. We apply an extreme gradient boosting model with Bayesian optimization to relate field observations to satellite-derived features and generate the final species map. Classification uncertainty is quantified using Shannon's entropy of the predicted class probabilities, which provide a spatially explicit measure of model confidence. The final model achieved an overall accuracy of 85% (F1 score = 0.82, Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.81), and mapped species distributions showed strong agreement with official forest statistics (Spearman's rho = 0.94).

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Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Fan Wang. 2025-09-22. Forest tree species classification and entropy-derived uncertainty mapping using extreme gradient boosting and Sentinel-1/2 satellite data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18228

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