DPSformer: A long-tail-aware model for improving heavy rainfall prediction

Abstract

Accurate and timely forecasting of heavy rainfall remains a critical challenge for modern society. Precipitation exhibits a highly imbalanced distribution: most observations record no or light rain, while heavy rainfall events are rare. Such an imbalanced distribution obstructs deep learning models from effectively predicting heavy rainfall events. To address this challenge, we treat rainfall forecasting explicitly as a long-tailed learning problem, identifying the insufficient representation of heavy rainfall events as the primary barrier to forecasting accuracy. Therefore, we introduce DPSformer, a long-tail-aware model that enriches representation of heavy rainfall events through a high-resolution branch. For heavy rainfall events $ \geq $ 50 mm/6 h, DPSformer lifts the Critical Success Index (CSI) of a baseline Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model from 0.012 to 0.067. For the top 1% coverage of heavy rainfall events, its Fraction Skill Score (FSS) exceeds 0.45, surpassing existing methods. Our work establishes an effective long-tailed paradigm for heavy rainfall prediction, offering a practical tool to enhance early warning systems and mitigate the societal impacts of extreme weather events.