Network-Level Vehicle Delay Estimation at Heterogeneous Signalized Intersections

Abstract

Accurate vehicle delay estimation is essential for evaluating the performance of signalized intersections and informing traffic management strategies. Delay reflects congestion levels and affects travel time reliability, fuel use, and emissions. Machine learning (ML) offers a scalable, cost-effective alternative; However, conventional models typically assume that training and testing data follow the same distribution, an assumption that is rarely satisfied in real-world applications. Variations in road geometry, signal timing, and driver behavior across intersections often lead to poor generalization and reduced model accuracy. To address this issue, this study introduces a domain adaptation (DA) framework for estimating vehicle delays across diverse intersections. The framework separates data into source and target domains, extracts key traffic features, and fine-tunes the model using a small, labeled subset from the target domain. A novel DA model, Gradient Boosting with Balanced Weighting (GBBW), reweights source data based on similarity to the target domain, improving adaptability. The framework is tested using data from 57 heterogeneous intersections in Pima County, Arizona. Performance is evaluated against eight state-of-the-art ML regression models and seven instance-based DA methods. Results demonstrate that the GBBW framework provides more accurate and robust delay estimates. This approach supports more reliable traffic signal optimization, congestion management, and performance-based planning. By enhancing model transferability, the framework facilitates broader deployment of machine learning techniques in real-world transportation systems.