Dynamic roughening of cities driven by multiplicative noise

Martin Hendrick; Gabriele Manoli

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arXiv · 2510.02904

Dynamic roughening of cities driven by multiplicative noise

Martin Hendrick·Gabriele Manoli

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Abstract

The evolution of urban landscapes is rapidly altering the surface of our planet. Yet, our understanding of the urbanisation phenomenon remains far from complete. A fundamental challenge is to describe spatiotemporal changes in the built environment. A dynamic theory of urban evolution should account for both vertical and horizontal city expansion, analogous to the dynamical behaviour of surface growth in physical and biological systems. Here we show that building-height dynamics in cities around the world are well described by a zero-dimensional geometric Brownian motion (GBM), where multiplicative noise drives stochastic fluctuations around a deterministic drift associated with economic growth. To account for intra-city correlations, we extend the GBM with spatial coupling, revealing how local interactions effectively mitigate noise-driven fluctuations and shape urban morphology. The continuum limit of this spatial model can be recasted into the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation and we find that empirical estimates of the roughness exponent are in the range of the KPZ prediction for most cities. Together, these results show that multiplicative noise, moderated by local interactions, governs the evolution of urban roughness, anchoring spatiotemporal city dynamics in a well-established statistical physics framework.

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Martin Hendrick, Gabriele Manoli. 2025-10-03. Dynamic roughening of cities driven by multiplicative noise. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02904

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