Evaluating multi-season occupancy models with autocorrelation fitted to heterogeneous datasets

Abstract

Predicting species distributions using occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection is now commonplace in ecology. Recently, modeling spatial and temporal autocorrelation was proposed to alleviate the lack of replication in occupancy data, which often prevents model identifiability. However, how such models perform in highly heterogeneous datasets where missing or single-visit data dominates remains an open question. Motivated by a heterogeneous fine-scale butterfly occupancy dataset, we evaluate the performance of a multi-season occupancy model with spatial and temporal random effects to a skewed (Poisson) distribution of the number of surveys per site, overlap of covariates between occupancy and detection submodels, and spatiotemporal clustering of observations. Results showed that the model is robust to heterogeneous data and covariate overlap. However, when spatiotemporal gaps were added, site occupancy was biased towards the average occupancy, itself overestimated. Random effects did not correct the influence of gaps, due to identifiability issues of variance and autocorrelation parameters. Occupancy analysis of two butterfly species further confirmed these results. Overall, multi-season occupancy models with autocorrelation are robust to heterogeneous data and covariate overlap, but still present identifiability issues and are challenged by severe data gaps, which contaminate predictions even in data-rich areas.