Top-of-atmosphere radiation over the last millennium reconstructed from proxies

Abstract

Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean heat content reconstructions offer a longer perspective, they cannot separate the contributions of shortwave and longwave radiation, obscuring the underlying processes. We extend the energy budget record into the pre-industrial period by reconstructing the top-of-atmosphere radiation and related surface variables over the last millennium (850-2000 CE) by using data assimilation to combine proxy data and dynamics from a coupled climate emulator. Validation reveals skill in the reconstructed radiation fields, especially in the tropics. Results show a familiar last-millennium cooling trend, which coincides with persistent heat loss and a reduction in upper-ocean heat content. The cooling trend differs by season and latitude, and is associated with radiative anomalies suggestive of an eastward shift in Indo-Pacific convection. Following large volcanic eruptions, ocean heat content anomalies persist for 10-20 years on average, supporting previous evidence that the cooling trend was forced by decadally-paced eruptions. The reconstruction also reveals that the current rate of energy gain is unprecedented relative to the period before 1850.