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arXiv · 2510.11505

Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning Models to Upscale Evapotranspiration in the U.S. Midwest

Aleksei Rozanov·Samikshya Subedi·Vasudha Sharma·Bryan C. Runck
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Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a critical role in the land-atmosphere interactions, yet its accurate quantification across various spatiotemporal scales remains a challenge. In situ measurement approaches, like eddy covariance (EC) or weather station-based ET estimation, allow for measuring ET at a single location. Agricultural uses of ET require estimates for each field over broad areas, making it infeasible to deploy sensing systems at each location. This study integrates tree-based and knowledge-guided machine learning (ML) techniques with multispectral remote sensing data, griddled meteorology and EC data to upscale ET across the Midwest United States. We compare four tree-based models - Random Forest, CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM - and a simple feed-forward artificial neural network in combination with features engineered using knowledge-guided ML principles. Models were trained and tested on EC towers located in the Midwest of the United States using k-fold cross validation with k=5 and site-year, biome stratified train-test split to avoid data leakage. Results show that LightGBM with knowledge-guided features outperformed other methods with an R2=0.86, MSE=14.99 W m^-2 and MAE = 8.82 W m^-2 according to grouped k-fold validation (k=5). Feature importance analysis shows that knowledge-guided features were most important for predicting evapotranspiration. Using the best performing model, we provide a data product at 500 m spatial and one-day temporal resolution for gridded ET for the period of 2019-2024. Intercomparison between the new gridded product and state-level weather station-based ET estimates show best-in-class correspondence.

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Aleksei Rozanov, Samikshya Subedi, Vasudha Sharma, Bryan C. Runck. 2025-10-13. Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning Models to Upscale Evapotranspiration in the U.S. Midwest. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11505

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