Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall in West Bengal Using Ensemble Learning Approaches

Abstract

Rainfall forecasting plays a critical role in climate adaptation, agriculture, and water resource management. This study develops long-term forecasts of monthly rainfall across 19 districts of West Bengal using a century-scale dataset spanning 1900-2019. Daily rainfall records are aggregated into monthly series, resulting in 120 years of observations for each district. The forecasting task involves predicting the next 108 months (9 years, 2011-2019) while accounting for temporal dependencies and spatial interactions among districts. To address the nonlinear and complex structure of rainfall dynamics, we propose a hierarchical modeling framework that combines regression-based forecasting of yearly features with multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) for monthly prediction. Yearly features, such as annual totals, quarterly proportions, variability measures, skewness, and extremes, are first forecasted using regression models that incorporate both own lags and neighboring-district lags. These forecasts are then integrated as auxiliary inputs into an MLP model, which captures nonlinear temporal patterns and spatial dependencies in the monthly series. The results demonstrate that the hierarchical regression-MLP architecture provides robust long-term spatio-temporal forecasts, offering valuable insights for agriculture, irrigation planning, and water conservation strategies.