Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2510.14877

Astrophysical uncertainties challenge 21-cm forecasts: A primordial black hole case study

Dominic Agius·Rouven Essig·Daniele Gaggero·Sergio Palomares-Ruiz·Gregory Suczewski·Mauro Valli
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The 21-cm signal is a powerful probe of the early Universe's thermal history and could provide a unique avenue for constraining exotic physics. Previous studies have forecasted stringent constraints on energy injections from exotic sources that heat, excite, and ionize the background gas and thereby modify the 21-cm signal. In this work, we quantify the substantial impact that astrophysical uncertainties have on the projected sensitivity to exotic energy injection. In particular, there are significant uncertainties in the minimum star-forming dark matter halo mass, the Lyman-$\alpha$ emission, and the X-ray emission, whose values characterize the fiducial astrophysical model when projecting bounds. As a case study, we investigate the energy injection of accreting primordial black holes of mass $\sim 1~M_\odot-10^3~M_\odot$, also taking into account uncertainties in the accretion model. We show that, depending on the chosen fiducial model and accretion uncertainties, the sensitivity of future 21-cm data could constrain the abundance of primordial black holes to be either slightly stronger, or significantly weaker, than current limits from the Cosmic Microwave Background.

Explore related subjects

astro-ph.COhep-ph

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Dominic Agius, Rouven Essig, Daniele Gaggero, Sergio Palomares-Ruiz, Gregory Suczewski, Mauro Valli. 2025-10-16. Astrophysical uncertainties challenge 21-cm forecasts: A primordial black hole case study. https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516%2F2026%2F02%2F047

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Constraining spinning primordial black holes with interstellar dust heating

Primordial black holes (PBHs) are a well-motivated dark matter candidate, and their cosmic abundance is constrained by a variety of observational probes. PBHs in the mass range $10^{15}\,\text{g}\,{-}\,10^{17}\,\text{g}$ are evaporating today via Hawking radiation, a process that can heat interstellar dust and modify its thermal emission. Recent studies have used this effect to place constraints on the abundance of non-spinning PBHs. We extend this approach by investigating the influence of PBH spin on dust-heating constraints. Furthermore, we account for secondary photons that originate not only from the decay of gauge bosons but also from the decay of hadrons produced via the fragmentation of primary quarks and gluons emitted through Hawking radiation. By comparing the dust heating rate induced by spinning PBHs with the maximum cooling rate of dust, considering both silicate and graphite grains, we derive new upper limits on the fraction of dark matter in the form of PBHs, $f_{\rm PBH}$. Our results show that the constraints depend on both PBH mass and spin. Smaller PBHs with higher spin yield stronger limits. For example, in the cases we investigated, the strongest constraint is $f_{\rm PBH} \sim 1.5 \times 10^{-4}$ for $M_{\rm PBH} = 10^{15}{\rm g}$ and spin parameter $a_{*} = 0.9999$. Although these limits are less stringent than existing constraints in the same mass range, they provide a distinct and complementary approach to constraining the abundance of PBHs.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

Two-parameter continuous deformation of Starobinsky inflation as a bridge between Planck and ACT DESI data with $N_\star\in(50,60)$

We present a family of plateau-type inflationary potentials, eq.~\eqref{Vgeneral}, and analyze a two-parameter $\alpha\beta$-Starobinsky specialization that interpolates continuously between a \emph{maximal} plateau ($V\!\to\!V_0$) and a \emph{submaximal} plateau ($V\!\to\!V_\infty 0$ with $x_\star\gg 1/\beta$ the slow-roll scaling laws change to $n_s\simeq 1-\frac{4}{3N_\star},\, r\simeq\mathcal{C}(\alpha,\beta)\,N_\star^{-4/3},$ with an explicit coefficient $\mathcal{C}(\alpha,\beta)$ set by the plateau truncation. This deformation lifts $n_s$ at fixed $N_\star$ while further suppressing $r$, reconciling the Planck~2018 constraint $n_s=0.9649\pm0.0042$ (68\% CL) and BICEP/Keck18 data $r_{0.05}<0.036$ (95\% CL), with the higher central values $n_s\sim0.97$--$0.98$ preferred by ACT+DESI~DR2 (BAO), within the theoretically motivated interval $N_\star\in(50,60)$ and without exotic reheating. We provide an exact identity for $V/V'$ enabling analytic control of $N_\star$, a practical crossover criterion $\beta\,x_\star\ll1$ vs.\ $\gg1$, and a transparent mapping between $(\alpha,\beta)$ and the observables $(n_s,r,N_\star)$. These yield sharp, testable signatures, particularly the softened $N_\star$-scaling of $r$, that distinguish a maximal from a submaximal plateau with upcoming CMB and LSS data.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

A Tale of Two Gauges: Effective Field Theory for Relativistic Behavior of Cosmological Axions

In this work, we present a formalism to model the relativistic behavior of axions. The relativistic behavior of axions is surprisingly difficult to model precisely, as it involves oscillations on timescales much shorter than the Hubble timescale. To overcome this challenge, one typically resorts to some form of effective treatment, focusing only on the time-averaged description of the exact oscillations. Salehian, Namjoo & Kaiser provide a systematic framework for such treatment, based on the effective field theory formalism. While the aforementioned study was formulated for axion perturbations in the Newtonian gauge with no anisotropic stress, we extend the formalism to the synchronous gauge that is more conventionally used for numerical implementation in a realistic cosmological setting. Unlike their work, however, we propose a fluid interpretation in which the axion field can be identified as a perfect fluid at all times, both in the exact and effective regimes. Moreover, we present the effective field theory for the Newtonian gauge with non-zero anisotropic stress, making the original formulation more general and useful for scenarios where the matter content of the universe is multi-component. These results lay the theoretical foundation for a companion paper where we discuss how the axion field should be incorporated alongside other species in common cosmological Boltzmann solvers.

astro-ph.CO↗