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arXiv · 2510.14917

Cumulants, Moments and Selection: The Connection Between Evolution and Statistics

Hasan Ahmed·Deena Goodgold·Khushali Kothari·Rustom Antia
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Abstract

Cumulants and moments are closely related to the basic mathematics of continuous and discrete selection (respectively). These relationships generalize Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection and also make clear some of its limitation. The relationship between cumulants and continuous selection is especially intuitive and also provides an alternative way to understand cumulants. We show that a similarly simple relationship exists between moments and discrete selection. In more complex scenarios, we show that thinking of selection over discrete generations has significant advantages. For a simple mutation model, we find exact solutions for the equilibrium moments of the fitness distribution. These solutions are surprisingly simple and have some interesting implications including: a necessary and sufficient condition for mutation selection balance, a very simple formula for mean fitness and the fact that the shape of the equilibrium fitness distribution is determined solely by mutation (whereas the scale is determined by the starting fitness distribution).

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Hasan Ahmed, Deena Goodgold, Khushali Kothari, Rustom Antia. 2025-10-16. Cumulants, Moments and Selection: The Connection Between Evolution and Statistics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.14917

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