SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2510.15950

Cross-dataset Multivariate Time-series Model for Parkinson's Diagnosis via Keyboard Dynamics

Abstract

Parkinson's disease (PD) presents a growing global challenge, affecting over 10 million individuals, with prevalence expected to double by 2040. Early diagnosis remains difficult due to the late emergence of motor symptoms and limitations of traditional clinical assessments. In this study, we propose a novel pipeline that leverages keystroke dynamics as a non-invasive and scalable biomarker for remote PD screening and telemonitoring. Our methodology involves three main stages: (i) preprocessing of data from four distinct datasets, extracting four temporal signals and addressing class imbalance through the comparison of three methods; (ii) pre-training eight state-of-the-art deep-learning architectures on the two largest datasets, optimizing temporal windowing, stride, and other hyperparameters; (iii) fine-tuning on an intermediate-sized dataset and performing external validation on a fourth, independent cohort. Our results demonstrate that hybrid convolutional-recurrent and transformer-based models achieve strong external validation performance, with AUC-ROC scores exceeding 90% and F1-Score over 70%. Notably, a temporal convolutional model attains an AUC-ROC of 91.14% in external validation, outperforming existing methods that rely solely on internal validation. These findings underscore the potential of keystroke dynamics as a reliable digital biomarker for PD, offering a promising avenue for early detection and continuous monitoring.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Arianna Francesconi, Donato Cappetta, Fabio Rebecchi, Paolo Soda, Valerio Guarrasi, Rosa Sicilia. 2025-10-10. Cross-dataset Multivariate Time-series Model for Parkinson's Diagnosis via Keyboard Dynamics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.15950

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

AUC Maximization from Biased Positive-unlabeled Data with Confidence

Maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a standard approach to imbalanced binary classification. Although positive and negative data are required for maximizing the AUC, negative data are often difficult to collect in some real-world applications due to privacy concerns or the need for specialized expertise to annotate them. Thus, AUC maximization from positive and unlabeled (PU) data has been attracting attention. Existing methods assume that labeled positive data are unbiased samples from the true positive distribution. However, this ideal assumption is often violated in practice. In this paper, we propose a method to maximize the AUC from biased PU data. To address the bias, our key idea is to exploit {\it confidence}, i.e., the probability that an instance is positive, associated with the small number of labeled positive data. We derive an estimator of the AUC risk using biased PU data with confidence, enabling AUC maximization under such bias. We further show that the rewritten AUC risk induces a Bayes-optimal AUC ranking even when the available confidence is any strictly increasing transformation of the true posterior probability. We experimentally show the effectiveness of our method on eight real-world datasets.

cs.LG

Measuring the Value of World-Model Updates: A Counterfactual Utility Protocol for Continual Adaptation

Continual world models must decide whether new data justify changing the model. Fixed replay schedules and prediction-error triggers specify when to update, but neither reveals the value of an individual update: one deployment run cannot show how the same model would have performed at that moment had it held its parameters. We introduce the fork ledger, which branches a deployment stream at pre-registered decision points into matched update and hold continuations under common random numbers. It evaluates both continuations on the same episodes and records $\Delta R = R_{\mathrm{update}} - R_{\mathrm{hold}}$. Always applying one fixed update mechanism lowers return on all three simulated control tasks: CartPole ($-144.0$; checkpoint-bootstrap $95\%$ CI $[-185.4,-116.1]$, against a converged return near $650$), Walker ($-82.8$; $[-101.1,-61.7]$) and Cheetah ($-18.6$; $[-29.0,-6.6]$). Divergence is an outcome of applying the update, so the estimand counts every attempted fork; restricted to the $693$ of $720$ that did not collapse, CartPole and Walker are unchanged in sign ($-113.4$ and $-82.1$) and Cheetah becomes unresolved ($-3.9$; $[-17.5,+13.0]$). The task is the unit of inference: each contributes $240$ attempted forks over five pretrained checkpoints crossed with two drift directions. The ledger makes counterfactual utility observable for a fixed mechanism, allowing triggers to be judged by the updates they select rather than by surprise detection alone.

cs.LG

When More Is Not Better: Component Anti-Synergy in a P300 Speller

P300 brain-computer interface (BCI) spellers can provide hands-free communication for people with severe motor impairments. Modern pipelines combine multiple individually promising components, often assuming that 'more-is-better'. We tested this assumption using a four-component full-factorial experiment varying the inclusion of Euclidean Alignment (EA), xDAWN spatial filtering, subject calibration, and language model priors on a public P300 dataset. Performance was evaluated using accuracy, repetitions, and information transfer rate (ITR) with mixed-effects models. Results show that the value of components is conditional rather than additive. Calibration was the strongest singular contributor, while EA compensated for its absence in zero-calibration settings. Adding independently useful components could also reduce performance, revealing component anti-synergy. Contrary to conventional wisdom, LM support was not universally beneficial: its effect depends strongly on the strength of the underlying EEG pipeline, while results from a larger LM showed a similar pattern. Together, these findings challenge maximal 'all-on' pipeline design and highlight the value of selecting spatial and language-support components according to the quality of available EEG evidence.

cs.LG