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arXiv · 2510.17215

On Misspecified Error Distributions in Bayesian Functional Clustering: Consequences and Remedies

Fumiya Iwashige·Tomoya Wakayama·Shonosuke Sugasawa·Shintaro Hashimoto
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Abstract

Nonparametric Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework for clustering without pre-specifying the number of groups, yet they are well known to overestimate the number of clusters, especially for functional data. We show that a fundamental cause of this phenomenon lies in misspecification of the error structure: errors are conventionally assumed to be independent across observed points in Bayesian functional models. Through high-dimensional clustering theory, we demonstrate that ignoring the underlying correlation leads to excess clusters regardless of the flexibility of prior distributions. Guided by this theory, we propose incorporating the underlying correlation structures via Gaussian processes and also present its scalable approximation with principled hyperparameter selection. Numerical experiments illustrate that even simple clustering based on Dirichlet processes performs well once error dependence is properly modeled.

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Fumiya Iwashige, Tomoya Wakayama, Shonosuke Sugasawa, Shintaro Hashimoto. 2025-10-20. On Misspecified Error Distributions in Bayesian Functional Clustering: Consequences and Remedies. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.17215

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