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arXiv · 2510.19854

Multi-Resolution Analysis of the Convective Structure of Tropical Cyclones for Short-Term Intensity Guidance

Elizabeth Cucuzzella·Tria McNeely·Kimberly Wood·Ann B. Lee
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Abstract

Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) short-term intensity forecasting with a 24-hour lead time is essential for disaster mitigation in the Atlantic TC basin. Since most TCs evolve far from land-based observing networks, satellite imagery is critical to monitoring these storms; however, these complex and high-resolution spatial structures can be challenging to qualitatively interpret in real time by forecasters. Here we propose a concise, interpretable, and descriptive approach to quantify fine TC structures with a multi-resolution analysis (MRA) by the discrete wavelet transform, enabling data analysts to identify physically meaningful structural features that strongly correlate with rapid intensity change. Furthermore, deep-learning techniques can build on this MRA for short-term intensity guidance.

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Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Tria McNeely, Kimberly Wood, Ann B. Lee. 2025-10-21. Multi-Resolution Analysis of the Convective Structure of Tropical Cyclones for Short-Term Intensity Guidance. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.19854

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