Exploration of Machine Learning Methods to Seismic Event Discrimination in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract

Accurately separating tectonic, anthropogenic, and geomorphologic seismic sources is essential for Pacific Northwest (PNW) monitoring but remains difficult as networks densify and signals overlap. Prior work largely treats binary discrimination and seldom compares classic ML (feature-engineered) and deep learning (end-to-end) approaches under a common, multi-class setting with operational constraints. We evaluate methods and features for four-way source discrimination - earthquakes, explosions, surface events, and noise - and identify models that are both accurate and deployable. Using ~200k three-component waveforms from >70k events in an AI-curated PNW dataset, we test random-forest classifiers on TSFEL, physics-informed, and scattering features, and CNNs that ingest time series (1D) or spectrograms (2D); we benchmark on a balanced common test set, a 10k event network dataset, and out-of-domain data (global surface events; near-field blasts). CNNs taking spectrograms lead with accuracy performance over 92% for within-domain (as a short-and-fat CNN SeismicCNN 2D) and out-of-domain (as a long and skinny CNN QuakeXNet 2D), versus 89% for the best random forest; performance remains strong at low SNR and longer distances, and generalizes to independent network and global datasets. QuakeXNet-2D is lightweight (~70k parameters; ~1.2 MB), implemented into seisbench, scans a full day of 100 Hz, three-component data in ~9 s on commodity hardware, with released checkpoints. These results show spectrogram-based CNNs provide state-of-the-art accuracy, efficiency, and robustness for real-time PNW operations and transferable surface-event monitoring.