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arXiv · 2510.25447

Data-driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone's Controllability

Yohei Sawada·Masashi Minamide·Yuyue Yan·Kazumune Hashimoto·Le Duc
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Abstract

Although the chaotic nature of the atmosphere may enable efficient control of tropical cyclones (TCs) via small-scale perturbations, few studies have proposed data-driven optimization methods to identify such perturbations. Here, we apply the recently proposed Ensemble Kalman Control (EnKC) to a TC simulation. We show that EnKC finds small-scale perturbations that mitigate TC. An EnKC-estimated reduction in surface water vapor, located approximately 250km from the TC center, suppresses convective activity and latent heat release in the eye wall, leading to a reduction of TC intensity. To advance the discovery of feasible TC mitigation strategies, we discuss the potential of this data-driven method for leveraging chaos, as well as its remaining challenges.

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Yohei Sawada, Masashi Minamide, Yuyue Yan, Kazumune Hashimoto, Le Duc. 2025-10-29. Data-driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone's Controllability. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.25447

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