NEOForCE: Near-Earth Objects' Forecast of Collisional Events

Abstract

Robust impact monitoring of near-Earth objects is an essential task of planetary defense. Current systems such as NASA's Sentry-II, the University of Pisa's CLOMON2, and ESA's Aegis have been highly successful, but independent approaches are essential to ensure reliability and to cross-validate predictions of possible impacts. We present NEOForCE (Near-Earth Objects' Forecast of Collisional Events), a new independent monitoring system for asteroid impact prediction. By relying on orbital solutions from DynAstVO at Paris Observatory and using an original methodology for uncertainty propagation, NEOForCE provides an alternative line of verification for impact assessments and strengthens the overall robustness of planetary defense. As other monitoring systems, NEOForCE samples several thousand virtual asteroids from the uncertainty region and integrates their orbits up to 100 years into the future. Instead of searching for close approaches of the virtual asteroids with the Earth, our system looks for times when the Earth comes close to the realistic uncertainty regions around them, which are mostly stretched along their osculating orbits. We also estimate the maximal impact probability, and only if this value is large enough do we continue to the next step. In this second step, we compute how the original asteroid orbit should be modified so that the new trajectory leads to an Earth impact, which allows us to confirm the possible collision and estimate the impact probability. We tested NEOForCE against NASA's Sentry-II system on five representative asteroids: 2000 SG344, 2005 QK76, 2008 JL3, 2023 DO and 2008 EX5. NEOForCE successfully recovered mostly all possible collisions reported by Sentry-II with impact probabilities above e-7, demonstrating the robustness of our approach. In addition, NEOForCE identified several potential impacts at the e-7 - e-6 level that Sentry-II did not report.