MVeLMA: Multimodal Vegetation Loss Modeling Architecture for Predicting Post-fire Vegetation Loss

Abstract

Understanding post-wildfire vegetation loss is critical for developing effective ecological recovery strategies and is often challenging due to the extended time and effort required to capture the evolving ecosystem features. Recent works in this area have not fully explored all the contributing factors, their modalities, and interactions with each other. Furthermore, most research in this domain is limited by a lack of interpretability in predictive modeling, making it less useful in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end ML pipeline called MVeLMA (\textbf{M}ultimodal \textbf{Ve}getation \textbf{L}oss \textbf{M}odeling \textbf{A}rchitecture) to predict county-wise vegetation loss from fire events. MVeLMA uses a multimodal feature integration pipeline and a stacked ensemble-based architecture to capture different modalities while also incorporating uncertainty estimation through probabilistic modeling. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that our model outperforms several state-of-the-art (SOTA) and baseline models in predicting post-wildfire vegetation loss. Furthermore, we generate vegetation loss confidence maps to identify high-risk counties, thereby helping targeted recovery efforts. The findings of this work have the potential to inform future disaster relief planning, ecological policy development, and wildlife recovery management.