Epidemic "momentum" and a conservation law for infectious disease dynamics

David J. D. Earn; Todd L. Parsons

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arXiv · 2511.01939

Epidemic "momentum" and a conservation law for infectious disease dynamics

David J. D. Earn·Todd L. Parsons

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Abstract

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation for this similarity in terms of any recognised common structure. We introduce a unifying concept of "epidemic momentum"---prevalence weighted by potential to infect---which is more informative than prevalence, yet analytically tractable. Epidemic momentum reveals a common underlying geometry in which outbreak trajectories always follow contours of a conserved quantity. This previously unrecognised conservation law constrains how epidemics can unfold and provides the mathematical basis for disentangling transmissibility from prior immunity using a single epidemic time series. Epidemic momentum also exposes the true final size of an outbreak and a universal phase-plane description that links generic renewal models to the classical SIR system.

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David J. D. Earn, Todd L. Parsons. 2025-11-02. Epidemic "momentum" and a conservation law for infectious disease dynamics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939

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