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arXiv · 2511.04089

P\'olya urn model for analysis of football passes

Ken Yamamoto
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Abstract

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a single parameter. Building on this result, a data analysis method is proposed and applied to a large-scale public dataset of professional football matches. The statistical properties of the preferential-selection parameter are examined, demonstrating its correlation with pass accuracy and with mean pass difficulty. This method is applicable to various evolving networks.

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Ken Yamamoto. 2025-11-06. P\'olya urn model for analysis of football passes. https://doi.org/10.1103/w5wk-mmcc

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