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arXiv · 2511.12266

Climate determinism reborn

Richard S. J. Tol
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Abstract

Environmental determinism in the past followed from the belief that the gods bestowed political power and the best possible weather on the sponsors of early scholars. Although later discredited in academia because of the associations with racism and the lack of support for any monocausal explanation of history, environmental determinism in popular culture has morphed into the unfounded idea of catastrophic climate change. Although a handful of papers in the literature on the economic impact of climate change appear to support this concern, closer inspection reveals severe methodological and conceptual issues with the analyses. Climate policy will not dominate major economies, because politicians will pull back before it does, but small economies may be overwhelmed by the export of carbon credits.

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Richard S. J. Tol. 2025-11-15. Climate determinism reborn. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.12266

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