Impact by design: translating Lead times in flux into an R handbook with code

Harrison Katz

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arXiv · 2511.12763

Impact by design: translating Lead times in flux into an R handbook with code

Harrison Katz

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Abstract

This commentary translates the central ideas in Lead times in flux into a practice ready handbook in R. The original article measures change in the full distribution of booking lead times with a normalized L1 distance and tracks that divergence across months relative to year over year and to a fixed 2018 reference. It also provides a bound that links divergence and remaining horizon to the relative error of pickup forecasts. We implement these ideas end to end in R, using a minimal data schema and providing runnable scripts, simulated examples, and a prespecified evaluation plan. All results use synthetic data so the exposition is fully reproducible without reference to proprietary sources.

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Harrison Katz. 2025-11-16. Impact by design: translating Lead times in flux into an R handbook with code. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.12763

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