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arXiv · 2511.16096

Modelling the impact of improving access to healthcare on Hepatitis B prevalence in the Thai-Myanmar border region

Anh D. Pham·Robert Moss·Wirichada Pan-ngum·Rose McGready·Nicholas Geard
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Abstract

Introduction: In Thailand, Hepatitis B is still endemic despite a strong program to eliminate the disease. A higher prevalence is reported in the border region and among migrants due to physical, financial and cultural barriers. Policies and programs targeting the border region and migrant communities have been suggested. Models can be used to understand and quantify the impact of these policies, given they can capture the heterogeneity within the population. Methods: In this study, we developed an Agent-based model that captures the differences between the Thai and migrant populations living in this region, notably the higher level of mobility, lower access to healthcare, and the higher prevalence of Hepatitis B among migrants, by modelling the origin of each individual explicitly. We used the model to estimate future trends of Hepatitis B prevalence in Thailand near the border with Myanmar under different scenarios of intervention. Results: Our study shows that although the current intervention level is effective in the Thai population, it is insufficient to reach national elimination targets due to high prevalence in migrants. Improving access to healthcare for migrants and the border region could potentially help to reach elimination targets, and we quantified the level of improvement needed to achieve elimination. Conclusion: Although there already exist policies to make healthcare more accessible to migrants and the border regions, they are still not yet effective due to financial and cultural barriers. Bringing down those barriers could reduce Hepatitis B prevalence in those communities and regions and contribute to reaching elimination targets in a reasonable timeline.

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Anh D. Pham, Robert Moss, Wirichada Pan-ngum, Rose McGready, Nicholas Geard. 2025-11-20. Modelling the impact of improving access to healthcare on Hepatitis B prevalence in the Thai-Myanmar border region. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16096

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