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arXiv · 2511.16802

A model for mosquito-borne epidemic outbreaks with information-dependent protective behaviour

Simone De Reggi·Andrea Pugliese·Mattia Sensi·Cinzia Soresina
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Abstract

We investigate a model for a mosquito-borne epidemic in which human hosts may adopt protective behaviour against vector bites in response to information on both past and current disease prevalence. Assuming that mosquitoes can also feed on non-competent hosts (i.e.\ hosts that do not contribute to disease transmission), we first revisit existing results and show that behaviour-driven protection may either decrease or increase the basic reproduction number, depending on the interaction between behavioural response, host composition, and transmission parameters. Assuming that opinion dynamics evolves on a much faster time scale than disease transmission, we then apply Geometric Singular Perturbation Theory to effectively reduce the original two-group model to a model for a homogeneous host population. The reduced system enables a detailed investigation of the impact of information-induced behavioural changes on the transient dynamics of the epidemic, including scenarios in which protective measures lead to outbreaks with low attack rates. Our analysis shows that behavioural responses may either facilitate epidemic control or prolong disease persistence, potentially generating recurrent damped epidemic waves. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate and support the analytical findings.

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Simone De Reggi, Andrea Pugliese, Mattia Sensi, Cinzia Soresina. 2025-11-20. A model for mosquito-borne epidemic outbreaks with information-dependent protective behaviour. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16802

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