SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2511.18828

Solving a Research Problem in Mathematical Statistics with AI Assistance

Abstract

Over the last few months, AI models including large language models have improved greatly. There are now several documented examples where they have helped professional mathematical scientists prove new results, sometimes even helping resolve known open problems. In this short note, we add another example to the list, by documenting how we were able to solve a previously unsolved research problem in robust mathematical statistics with crucial help from GPT-5. Our problem concerns robust density estimation, where the observations are perturbed by Wasserstein-bounded contaminations. In a previous preprint (Chao and Dobriban, 2023, arxiv:2308.01853v2), we have obtained upper and lower bounds on the minimax optimal estimation error; which were, however, not sharp. Starting in October 2025, making significant use of GPT-5 Pro, we were able to derive the minimax optimal error rate (reported in version 3 of the above arxiv preprint). GPT-5 provided crucial help along the way, including by suggesting calculations that we did not think of, and techniques that were not familiar to us, such as the dynamic Benamou-Brenier formulation, for key steps in the analysis. Working with GPT-5 took a few weeks of effort, and we estimate that it could have taken several months to get the same results otherwise. At the same time, there are still areas where working with GPT-5 was challenging: it sometimes provided incorrect references, and glossed over details that sometimes took days of work to fill in. We outline our workflow and steps taken to mitigate issues. Overall, our work can serve as additional documentation for a new age of human-AI collaborative work in mathematical science.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Edgar Dobriban. 2025-11-24. Solving a Research Problem in Mathematical Statistics with AI Assistance. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.18828

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

A Scale Invariance Property of PCA

The PCA algorithm is sensitive to changes in measurement scale. Measuring one variable of a system in inches rather than centimeters, say, alters both its principal axes and principal eigenvalues. Although this scale dependence is generally complicated, we show here that it nevertheless obeys a strict invariance property: under a continuous scale adjustment, the initial state's $k$-th largest principal component (ordered by eigenvalue) continuously evolves into the final state's $k$-th largest principal component, for each $k$. In this sense, we can say that the modes of PCA are "order-stable" with respect to changes in measurement scale. A special case occurs when scaling along directions that are orthogonal to some modes. Here, apparent eigenvalue crossings can occur. However, we show that we can interpret these apparent crossings as cases where the modes instantaneously swap their orientation, in this way maintaining the required order stability.

math.ST

Small noise asymptotics for linear parabolic SPDEs in two space dimensions with unknown damping factors

We study parametric estimation for second order linear parabolic stochastic partial differential equations in two space dimensions with a small volatility parameter driven by a $Q$-Wiener process with an unknown damping parameter using high frequency spatio-temporal data. We first provide an estimator for the damping parameter of the $Q$-Wiener process utilizing realized quadratic variations based on spatial and temporal increments. We next propose minimum contrast estimators of the diffusive and advective parameters in the SPDE using a contrast function with the proposed estimator of the damping parameter. We then construct a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the reaction parameter in the SPDE using the approximate coordinate process derived from the estimators of the diffusive and advective parameters. We also provide simulation results of the proposed estimators.

math.ST

Spike Estimation from Heteroscedastic Noise via Random Splitting

In this paper, we consider a spiked Wigner type matrix with a heteroscedastic and unknown variance profile. It is well known that in the supercritical regime of the BBP transition, strong spikes can create outliers in the spectrum. Unfortunately, in the heteroscedastic case, in general it is not possible to estimate the spike strength from these observed outlier consistently, as the latter is a solution to a Dyson equation with unknown parameters from the variance profile. In this paper, inspired by the work on sparse matrix completion \citep{BordenaveCosteNadakuditi2023}, we introduce an asymmetrized model by randomly splitting the spiked matrix into two parts, which transforms the noisy Wigner type matrix into a non Hermitian random matrix, while preserving the Hermitian spikes at the cost of a dilution. We establish a BBP type transition for the asymmetrized model, from which we can estimate the strength of the spikes precisely, even without knowing the variance profile of the noise part. We then further apply our approach to study the correlation between two correlated spiked models, where the spike/signal parts of the two models are correlated, and the noise parts are independent but may both be heteroscedastic. By applying our asymmetrization approach to the two models separately and also jointly, we are able to obtain a precise estimate of the correlation between the signal parts of the two models.

math.ST