Public Ideological Polarization

Alistair Pattison

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arXiv · 2512.00955

Public Ideological Polarization

Alistair Pattison

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Abstract

This paper provides a novel summary measure of ideological polarization in the American public based on the joint distribution of survey responses. Intuitively, polarization is maximized when views are concentrated at opposing extremes with little mass in between and when opinions are highly correlated across many issues. Using this measure, I show that public polarization has been increasing for the past three decades and that these changes are mostly due to increases in general disagreement, not dimensional collapse. Furthermore, these increases are not explained by the diverging opinions of Democrats and Republicans, nor divergence of opinions across gender, geography, education, or any other demographic divide.

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Alistair Pattison. 2025-11-30. Public Ideological Polarization. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00955

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